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Let be the
evidence. Then the probability of the hidden variable given evidence
is obtained by applying Bayes' rule as follows:
In particular, when we observe all but the choice
variable, i.e., and
, we obtain the
posterior probability distribution of :
|
(4) |
The probability distribution of a given subset of given the evidence is
Thus the result is again a mixture of the results of inference
procedures run on the component trees.
Journal of Machine Learning Research
2000-10-19